Saturday, September 20, 2014

Active management 'never' good

Nobel winner Fama: Active management 'never' good

Eugene Fama, the University of Chicago investing researcher who won the Nobel Prize in economics last year, once again warned investors against the lure of active management.

"The question is when is active management good? The answer is never," Fama said to laughs Thursday at the Morningstar ETF Conference in Chicago.


"If active managers win, it has to be at the expense of other active managers. And when you add them all up, the returns of active managers have to be literally zero, before costs. Then after costs, it's a big negative sign," Fama added.

Eugene Fama appears at the Morningstar ETF Conference in Chicago, Sept. 18, 2014.
Jim Tweedle | Morningstar
 
Eugene Fama appears at the Morningstar ETF Conference in Chicago, Sept. 18, 2014.
He's known as the father of the efficient-markets theory, which says that asset prices reflect all available information; investment managers can never truly get an edge.


Fama dismissed the idea that it was possible to pick the best managers.
"The good ones might be good or they might be lucky. The bad ones might be bad or they might be unlucky. We can't really tell the difference," he said. "I don't know if it would ever make sense, even if the fees were zero, I don't think you'd be better off because you'd be investing in an undiversified way."

Asked about Warren Buffett's long-term record of picking good companies, Fama said the Berkshire Hathaway chief actually agreed with his index-based thesis. Buffett said recently he actually has directed much of his fortune to be placed in passive index funds after he dies.
"He's, like, my hero," Fama said. "What he says is, 'I can pick a company every couple years, but if you have to form a portfolio, you're better off going passive.'"

"All the behavioral people say the same thing," Fama added. "In the end, they realize that the game of doing something active is fraught with problems."

Fama was also asked about hedging against big crashes, like what happened to the markets in 2008. Attempting to protect against them, he said, was the unwinnable game of market-timing.
"If you sold when the market crashed, you made a big mistake, and if you saw it coming you're a genius," Fama said.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Retirees' big move (or not): Here's what to consider

Retirees' big move (or not): Here's what to consider


Should I stay or should I go? Many people nearing retirement grapple with this decision. Choosing whether to retire "in place" or move to a new location could make or break your nest egg. There are many factors to consider, from expenses associated with the relocation to your cost of living in a new place.
For many baby boomers, Florida often ranks at the top of the list of the most retirement-friendly cities in the nation. But would you consider moving to Grand Prairie, Texas, or Overland Park, Kansas? A new WalletHub survey of the 10 best cities to retire puts both places on the list, after reviewing data in five categories—affordability, jobs, activities, quality of life and health care—for 150 of the largest cities in the U.S.

These are important categories, for sure, but there are other factors to consider before you move. 

Robert Daly | OJO Images | Getty Images
 
Cost to Sell


After paying the real estate agent's commission, fixing up your home on your own or hiring a professional to do so before you put it on the market and paying lawyer fees and other expenses for the sale, you could wind up spending about 10 percent of the purchase price of your house in order to sell it.

Cost to Buy
 
Your mortgage, if you get one, will likely be your biggest expense. Even if you pay cash for the new house or condo, there are lawyer fees, title insurance, inspections and taxes. Consider the travel costs to visit properties in the new locale or even the cost of renting for a few months to determine if you really want to buy.



Taxes 
 
How friendly is the financial climate in the state? Your tax burden can vary widely from one location to another. Why do so many retirees move to Florida? It's not only the weather. Seven states—Florida, Alaska, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming—have no state income tax. But don't just move for tax reasons. Keep in mind, that if you live part time in both places you may have to keep track of days you spend in each state and pay taxes accordingly.


Friends & Family
 
You may find you hate Florida if all of your family and friends are in New Jersey. When it comes to your decision about whether and where to move, "the biggest questions are going to be the intangibles, especially support systems," said certified financial planner Carolyn McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners. Make sure to consider the support systems—whether it's family, friends or facilities that offer great health care and long-term care as well.

—By CNBC's Sharon Epperson and Judy Gee

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Why You Are Spending More and Enjoying It Less

Why You Are Spending More and Enjoying It Less

Financial Advisers Agree—Americans Spend Way Too Much

February 16, 2014
 
When a taco shop opened across the street from Stefanie O'Connell's New York City apartment, she figured it would be harmless to go there a few times a week and grab a quick dinner.
But before she knew it, the actress and freelance writer was dropping $10 to $15 a week on tacos—that comes to more than $500 a year, or just about enough to pay for a round-trip ticket for her dream trip to Amsterdam. 

"Dining out has always been a budget buster of mine," she admits.
Ms. O'Connell decided to rein in her taco habit and save for her trip by wrapping a picture of Amsterdam around her cash and credit cards.

So far, it's working. She hasn't had a taco in a month.

There's one thing most financial advisers agree on: Americans are spending too much. WSJ's Veronica Dagher joins Lunch Break with three tips on how to stop spending so much money and get back on track financially. 

Few of us will have our dreams thwarted by the cost of a couple of tacos, but there's one thing most financial advisers agree on: Americans spend way too much.
You may overspend because you're bored, you have no budget or you want to keep up with your neighbors.
Or you might be letting your emotions dictate your financial decisions. 

Whatever the reason, you may be setting yourself up for a financial disaster.
But fear not: There are a few ways you can rein in your spending before it's too late.
Tracking your cash flow and tapping into your feelings are two things financial advisers say you can do to curb your urge to spend.

"The spending choices you make now will greatly impact your quality of life later on," says Patrick McDowell, a Miramar Beach, Fla., financial adviser.

Get a Plan

Financial planner Jorie Johnson once met with clients who had more than $50,000 in credit-card debt. The Manasquan, N.J., planner asked the couple where the boat or pool or RV was that they purchased to incur such a debt.

"They couldn't even remember one thing they bought," Ms. Johnson says.
Ms. Johnson found out later that all of their debt was from many purchases of under $100 which compounded over time when they paid their credit-card bills late. The wife also had a "penchant for Target and Old Navy," Ms. Johnson says. 

To help her clients get back on track, Ms. Johnson recommended the wife shop only with a list and pay with cash. She also told her to get a part-time job.

"If you aren't earning money or sleeping, you're most likely spending," Ms. Johnson says.
Jeff Duncan says folks usually overspend because they have no budget.
"Money comes in and money goes out each month without any grasp of what their actual monthly overhead expenses are and what their actual monthly household income is," says the Little Falls, N.J., financial adviser.

In turn, Mr. Duncan says to create a budget. He also says to set up monthly automatic deductions from your checking account into an emergency savings fund or investment vehicle such as a 401(k) or individual retirement account. That way, the money is siphoned off before you have a chance to spend it.
Karol Ward, a New York psychotherapist, says to track everything you spend for a month using a small notebook or an app such as Wally or Mint. Doing that will help you see areas where you may be overspending, she says.

Understand Your Emotions

Ms. Ward recently worked with a client who overspent at restaurants because he was always picking up the check for everyone at the table.
The client felt insecure about his success and compensated by showing others that he was successful enough to buy dinner. But at the end of the month, he always struggled to pay his credit-card bill.
"Overspending on others actually made him feel less successful because he never had enough money for himself," Ms. Ward says.

This client's need to keep up the appearance of success kept him in a perpetual state of anxiety and fueled his feelings of inadequacy, she says.
To make more-conscious spending decisions, says Chicago financial psychologist Marty Martin, ask yourself "What need am I trying to fulfill?" or "How will I react when the credit-card bill comes in the mail?" 

"The key is to be mindful about spending rather than engaging in the automatic behavior which is the goal of the marketers and merchandisers," he says.
Seeking the counsel of a coach or minister to help you uncover your feelings about money can also help, Ms. Ward says.
Lauren Lindsay, a Covington, La., financial planner, recommends waiting 24 hours before making a purchase. And don't take your frustrations out by shopping online, either. "Take a walk or bath," she says.

Know Your Hot Buttons

In addition, Ms. Lindsay says it's important to know your spending "hot buttons."
For example, Ms. Lindsay says she can spend $100 in Barnes & Noble in about 20 minutes.
Why? She loves to read, and she was very poor when she was young. Other kids owned books, but she had to borrow library books. Returning them always reminded her of her poverty. To this day, books are some of her most treasured possessions.

In turn, she's set a monthly budget for books so she doesn't overspend. She recommends you do the same for your hot buttons.
"Figure out what gives you joy so you can have it in moderation," she says.
Constance Stone, a Chagrin Falls, Ohio, financial planner, says to keep a daily gratitude journal to focus on all the "positives" in your life. This may help you lessen the feelings of "not having enough," she says. It could also prompt you to place more value on nonmaterial aspects of life, such as family and friends.
Prioritizing and setting a time table for buying big-ticket items can also help keep spending in check, says Ms. Stone.

San Diego financial planner Peg Eddy says to visualize a big goal, such as retirement—or a dream trip to Amsterdam—that you wish to save for, and recall a picture of it every time you're tempted to spend money on something that doesn't align with your goal.
"Sometimes it can help you understand that cutting back here and there can help underwrite some big goal," she says.

But if you're stuck in a cycle of overspending you may need to take more extreme action, like Ms. Johnson's clients with way too much debt and too little to show for it. Her advice: "Cut up your credit cards."

Monday, September 8, 2014

Bill Ford warns auto industry on 7-year car loans

Bill Ford warns auto industry on 7-year car loans

I think we have to be careful because we don't want to get into a situation like we did before where consumers are over extended the executive chairman of Ford Motor tells CNBC.

With the auto industry roaring back to life, the executive chairman at Ford Motor warned on Monday that lenders and consumers should not fall back on old habits.

"I think we have to be careful because we don't want to get into a situation like we did before, where consumers are over extended. That doesn't do anybody any good," William Clay Ford Jr., said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."



His comments come at a time when six- and seven-year car loans are becoming more common, along with incentives and discounts to get people to buy vehicles. Lenders are also relaxing some of the most stringent standards adopted after the 2008 financial crisis.


"We've been relatively conservative at Ford about those types of things," Ford said.
 I feel very good about our future, says Ford. We have a lot of new launches coming to the marketplace.
Ford, great-grandson of Henry Ford, also said he's encouraged by "the underlying strength" of the industry.

In August, automakers reported a 5.5 percent rise in U.S. sales from a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales rose to 17.53 million vehicles from 15.94 million a year earlier.
That was well above the 16.6 million forecast from analysts polled by Thomson Reuters and the highest rate since 17.6 million in January 2006.

Read MoreForget Ford and GM. This automaker looks downright 'cheap'


—By CNBC's Matthew J. Belvedere. Wire services contributed to this report.

How much of your retirement income is guaranteed?

Investors fear retirement unknowns


It's common knowledge that the baby boomers are hitting retirement in droves. Every month, more than a quarter-million boomers turn 65. That's a trend with amazing economic consequences.
What many people may not realize, however, is that the boomer's retirement could last six years longer.
Oliver Rossi | Stone | Getty Images
 
Why? Since 1965, the average retirement age has dropped almost two full years, while life expectancy at age 65 has increased four years. Basically, boomers, on average, are going to live longer than any generational group.
This puts an additional financial burden on boomers and creates anxiety for Generation X and millennials. And that puts pressure on financial advisors, who need to help investors tackle the unknown and prepare for what could be a longer post-retirement life.

Better late than never

Baby boomers don't have time to plan for retirement—they are already here. Whether they are prepared or not is another story. As the last generation expected to be more successful than their parents, they may have had unrealistic expectations of their ability to save.

Alternately, they may not have been concerned about saving early in their careers. After all, their parents and grandparents fared well with pensions and social security. And then there's the recession, which wiped out retirement funds right as many boomers were about to start needing them. It's a bleak picture.



But boomers are resilient and determined. They expect solutions and will work to find them.
When working with boomers, financial professionals need to change their language from "planning for retirement" to "what are your retirement plans."
It's key to understand how these boomers wish to approach retirement—as a delayed adventure, as a well-deserved rest—and then help them see how they can accomplish that plan, or at least a version of it.
<p>Boomers boost luxury travel biz</p> <p>Matthew Upchurch, Virtuoso chairman & CEO, discusses the baby boomers' big impact on the travel industry.</p>
Boomers are success-oriented. They need to know what is possible. If their retirement savings won't get them their ultimate dream, it's essential for them to understand what they can still do to make sure things align with their core values.
As for Gen X, they are overwhelmed. They are hitting their stride in the earnings years, but spending it as fast or faster than it comes in. They are in a high-cost period of life, with homes and cars and children and tuition and 100 different ways they need to stretch their dollars.


They know they need to save more for retirement—they really do. And they have the best intentions. But we all know where that path goes.
Caught between the boomerswho may have been slightly blindsided by the change in retirement strategy over the past few decadesand millennials who don't have any faith that the system will be there to help them out, Gen X is underprepared for retirement.
"Millennials are not going to take kindly to the 'Just one Starbucks a day can make a difference' pitch."
But it's not out of misinformation. If anything, it is from information overload. The numbers just seem too much, and they suffer analysis paralysis.
To help Gen Xers get back on track for retirement, they need to focus on the time they have between now and their desired retirement age.
They are constantly comparing themselves to their peers, so a savvy financial professional needs to show them where they stack up. It's important for an advisor to use similar income levels, not average, or the Gen Xers will start discounting the advisor's stats. Encourage a snowball approach where they take a first small step and then gradually add more. In other words, make it palatable.

Of course, Gen X doesn't want to retire broke. However, they also want to enjoy today.
They are carpe diem kids and are not interested in sacrifice today for return tomorrow. The key is for advisors to turn the conversation around and show the Gen Xers how they can get what they want in retirement without having to feel like they are missing out on today.

No time like the present

Millennials are lucky in that they have plenty of time to think about retirement. This generation of savers also have no delusions of anyone helping them out. This combination would be an ideal audience for retirement planning, except for millennials' staggering student loan debt and their consumer-focused approach to life.

But millennials are also optimistic by nature. They want to make smart decisions and own their lives and their choices. The smart financial advisor will tap into that energy and show these young investors how small contributions today can give them greater freedom tomorrow.

Be aware, however, that millennials are not going to take kindly to the "Just one Starbucks a day can make a difference" pitch.
That $4 luxury feels like a birthright. Instead, an advisor should suggest they apply half of each year's raise or bonus toward retirement—it's money they weren't spending, and they have time to let those smaller contributions grow.

It's essential that these young investors develop good saving habits early.
—By Cam Marston, special to CNBC.com. Marston is president of Generational Insights and author of "Motivating the 'What's In It for Me?' Workforce" and "Generational Insights."

Monday, August 25, 2014

Why the 'Made in China' model is weakening

Why the 'Made in China' model is weakening


Workers in a clothing factory in Bozhou, Anhui province, China.
AFP | Getty Images
 Workers in a clothing factory in Bozhou, Anhui province, China. 
 
Chinaa low-cost maker of goods—is falling behind in the global manufacturing race as rising wages and energy costs put pressure on the Asian country, synonymous with making super cheap stuff.
 
China is among several economies whose manufacturing price advantage over the U.S. is eroding, according to new data released Tuesday from The Boston Consulting Group. Other countries that are becoming less cost competitive include Brazil, Russia, the Czech Republic and Poland.
On the flip side, moderate wage growth and lower energy prices are making the U.S. and Mexico more desirable manufacturing destinations. The upshot? More U.S. businesses are likely to produce goods closer to home in the coming years.

"This means companies will start to move manufacturing out of those expensive countries if they can, to cheaper countries like the U.S.," said Hal Sirkin, a senior partner at The Boston Consulting Group.
Recent U.S. government data show similar gains. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in July for its sixth-consecutive monthly gain, the Federal Reserve reported last week. Manufacturing output advanced 1 percent in July, its largest increase since February.


"It used to be a simple rule: Manufacturing is cheaper in Asia and South America," Sirkin said. "But it's fundamentally changed."

Less 'Made in China'

While thousands of U.S. manufacturing jobs that were lost to overseas production won't be recovered overnight, the landscape is changing. And the manufacturing shifts are especially dramatic in China.
Wages in the most populous nation are soaring. By comparison, Mexican manufacturing labor in 2000 was roughly twice as expensive as in China. But since 2004, Chinese wages have grown nearly five fold, and Mexican wages have risen by only 67 percent—less than 50 percent in dollar terms.
Higher energy costs also are dampening China's manufacturing prowess. The cost of industrial electricity rose by about 66 percent in China and 132 percent in Russia. The cost of natural gas soared by about 138 percent in China and 202 percent in Russia from 2004 to 2014, according to Boston Consulting research.
 
While Russia is a key exporter of natural gas, higher production of U.S. shale gas has pushed U.S. energy prices down sharply. Russia, meanwhile, still relies on conventional natural gas, which has become more expensive.
 
According to Boston Consulting's global manufacturing cost-competitive index—with the U.S. pegged at 100—China came in at 96 this year. In other words, it's 4 percent more expensive to manufacture in America versus China. China's reading used to be lower in the 80s, which means the cost of making goods in the U.S. compared to China has since narrowed.
"We see China as getting much more expensive," said Sirkin, co-author of several reports on the shifting economics of global manufacturing.

The case for American manufacturing

If manufacturing in China is getting dicier, the prospects for the U.S. and Mexico are improving. And cheaper energy prices are a key reason why.
 
Natural gas prices have fallen by 25 to 35 percent since 2004 in North America due to large-scale production of shale. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, forces natural gas and crude oil out of shale buried deep below the earth by using highly pressurized and treated water.
U.S. wage growth also has been slow. The current hourly, federal minimum wage is $7.25. Efforts to raise the federal minimum to $10.10 an hour, if passed, would affect the service industry.

Most manufacturing jobs, though, already are in the range of $10 to $15 an hour and would not be impacted by a federal wage change.

Brillo: 'Made in the USA'

Source: Armaly Brands
 
But as any business owner will explain, wages and energy costs aren't the only factors.
Logistics and the overall ease of doing business can influence potential manufacturing locations. For example, Armaly Brands' Brillo steel wool soap pad has never outsourced production or its labor overseas, and Brillo products are made in Michigan and Ohio. Armaly Brands employs about 125 people at two manufacturing plants, with plans for a third location in Michigan.
While manufacturing costs may have been cheaper in Asia in prior years, duplicating the company's synthetic sponge technology overseas would have been difficult. Keeping manufacturing local also makes inventory management easier and provides flexibility, said John Armaly, chief executive officer of Armaly Brands, based in Walled Lake, Michigan.
And domestic production means better quality control. "The quality of some of the products made overseas is not the same as we produce in the states," Armaly said.

Tipping-point industries

As businesses continue to recalculate the costs of manufacturing in China, some industries are forecast to reach a tipping point in around five years and begin shifting manufacturing to the U.S., according to a Boston Consulting report released in 2012.
Those sectors include computers and electronics; appliances and electrical equipment; furniture; and transportation goods such as truck components and bicycles. These industries have relatively low labor cost components and high transportation related costs so they likely would return to the U.S. first.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Oh, Just a very short list of taxes....

Overall, we are now being taxed at a higher rate than when we threw tea into the harbor, with no end of increases in sight. Now include the understanding of the demographics of our nation, and that light at the end of the tunnel is not a ray of sunshine, but a train coming our way and we’re on the tracks.
  • FEDERAL INCOME TAX
  • SOCIAL SECURITY TAX
  • STATE TAX
  • CITY TAX
  • COUNTY TAX
  • PROPERTY TAX
  • PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX
  • SCHOOL TAX
  • LONG CAPITAL GAINS TAX
  • SHORT CAPITAL GAINS TAX
  • SALES TAX
  • ESTATE TAX
  • GASOLINE TAX
  • WATER TAX
  • SEWER TAX
  • TAX ON ENERGY – GAS, ELECTRIC, HEATING OIL
  • BUSINESS TAX
  • AIRPORT TAX
  • TELEPHONE TAX
  • LICENSE PLATE TAX
  • HOTEL TAX
  • CABLE TV TAX
  • USER TAXES
  • UNEMPLOYMENT TAX
  • WORKERS COMP. TAX
  • 100’S OF REGULATORY FEES
  • CIGARETTE TAX
  • CORPORATE INCOME TAX
  • INHERITANCE TAX
  • ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE TAX
  • INVENTORY TAX
  • MARRIAGE LICENSE TAX
  • LIQUOR TAX
  • BUILDING PERMIT TAX
  • MEDICARE TAX
  • FISHING LICENSE TAX
  • REAL ESTATE TAX
  • FOOD LICENSE TAX
  • FUEL PERMIT TAX
  • HUNTING LICENSE TAX
  • ROAD USAGE TAX (TRUCKERS)
  • LUXURY TAX
  • RECREATIONAL VEHICLE TAX
  • UTILITY TAX
  • SEPTIC PERMIT TAX
  • WELL PERMIT TAX
  • ROAD TOLL BOOTH TAX
  • VEHICLE SALES TAX WORKERS COMPENSATION TAX
  • TRAILER REGISTRATION TAX
  • WATERCRAFT REGISTRATION TAX
  • LONG TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX
  • SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX
  • TELEPHONE FEDERAL EXCISE TAX
  • TELEPHONE STATE AND LOCAL TAX
  • TELEPHONE USAGE CHARGE TAX
  • TELEPHONE FEDERAL UNIVERSAL SERVICE FEE TAX
 ©2012 Wealth & Wisdom Institute.