In changes that have raised the potential investment
risks in many 401(k) retirement accounts, several major fund companies
are increasing the stock allocation of their target date funds, which
are used by many of those with such plans.
BlackRock,
Fidelity Investments, and Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco)—all
firms that have seen returns in their target date funds lagging
competitors—have made adjustments in the past year so that 401(k) plan
participants, particularly those who are younger to middle age, are more
invested in equities. In some cases employees who are in their 40s now
find themselves in funds that are 94 percent allocated into stocks, up
more than 10 percentage points.
The changes have prompted concerns from
consultants and analysts who worry that the fund managers are raising
the risks too high for 401(k) investors as they seek higher returns,
perhaps as a way to boost their own profiles against rivals.
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This anxiety could grow if the recent decline in the U.S.
stock market – the S&P 500 is down 4.5 percent since reaching an
all-time high in mid-September and dropped more than 2 percent on
Thursday – gains momentum. On the other hand, the increased bets on
equities can be seen as a vote of confidence in the bull market, and are
also a reflection of expectations of low returns from bonds in the next
few years if interest rates climb.
"The shared characteristic these funds have
is they have not been doing so well since 2008," said Janet Yang, a fund
analyst at Morningstar. "The question is if the markets had gone down,
would they have made these changes?"
For their part, executives at these firms
say the changes are based on optimistic long-term forecasts for
equities, lowered expectations for bond market returns and a better
understanding of how much investors, particularly younger ones, rely on
these funds as their primary retirement savings vehicle.
Target date funds contain a mix of assets,
such as stocks and bonds and real estate, and automatically adjust that
mix to be less risky as the target maturity date of the fund approaches.
The idea is that retirement savers can choose a target date fund that
lines up with their own expected retirement year and then not have to
worry about managing their money.
These funds have increasing significance for
retirement savers, because employers can and do automatically invest
workers' savings in target date funds, though the workers can opt out.
Some 41 percent of plan participants invest in these funds, up from 20
percent five years ago, according to the SPARK Institute, a Washington
DC-based lobbyist for the retirement plan industry.
Nevertheless, the recent tilt towards heavier equity
holdings raises questions about whether workers are entrusting
professional money managers who might end up buying equities at or near
market highs – the S&P is up 189 percent since March 2009.
"Our concern is that this is happening after a
pretty good run in the equity market," said Lori Lucas, defined
contribution practice leader at Callan Associates, a San Francisco-based
consultant to institutional investors. "If it's a reaction to the fact
that some target date funds haven't been competitive then it is a
concern."
A more aggressive approach has worked for some funds in recent years.
The target date fund families of BlackRock,
Fidelity and Pimco have performed among the bottom half of their peers
over the last three and five year periods, according to Morningstar.
Meanwhile, more aggressive target date fund families, like those managed
by The Vanguard Group, T. Rowe Price and Capital Research &
Management, ranked among the top half of their peers.
As of June 30, BlackRock's three-year return for
its 2050 fund was 10.6 percent, according to Morningstar, compared with
10.16 percent for Fidelity's similar fund and 7.14 percent for Pimco's
comparable fund. Meanwhile Capital Research's 2050 fund returned 13.27
percent and Vanguard's fund returned 12.26 percent for the same period.
Furthermore, with average expenses of 0.85 percent
per year, these funds charge more than the 0.7 percent in fees levied
by the typical actively managed balanced fund, according to Morningstar.
The firms' pitch is that investors are paying more for peace of mind
and a set-it-and-forget it approach to managing their retirement money.
Workers willing to make their own mix of indexed stock and bond funds
could pay considerably less. The average expense ratio for an equity
index fund is 0.13 percent and 0.12 percent for a bond index fund.
"There is some kind of expectation that we are
making these changes because of the equity markets or because of what
competitors are doing and that is incorrect," said Chip Castille, head
of BlackRock's U.S. retirement group.
BlackRock decided to make its changes after a
four-year research project cast new light on how younger workers look at
their plans. Previously, BlackRock's funds were focused on making sure
that investors had enough at retirement. But given that employees' wages
tend to be flat or go up in value slowly, like a bond, BlackRock wanted
to make sure that the target date funds were designed to provide
greater returns during the course of employees' lifetimes, Castille
said.
That, along with the firm's positive 10-year forecast for equities, resulted in the changes, he said.
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With the BlackRock changes, which take effect next month,
401(k) participants with 25 years left until retirement will see their
equity allocation jump to 94 percent from 78 percent. Investors at
retirement age saw their equities allocation jump to 40 percent from 38
percent.
Executives at the firms note that the increases in
equities all fit within the age appropriate risk for the investors, and
that those investors close to or at retirement are seeing a very small
bump in their equities weightings.
Also they note that they believe the changes will
combat risks of not having enough money at retirement due to inflation
and also address concerns that as people live longer they will need more
in retirement.
Fidelity made its changes in January after it
revamped its capital markets forecasts, which it revisits annually, said
Mathew Jensen, the firm's director of target date strategies.
Specifically, Fidelity has lowered its forecasts
for bond returns from 4 percent a year to 1 to 2 percent, not including
inflation. That along, with internal research that showed that younger
workers were not saving enough, led to the decision.
"None of our work was saying 'hey the equity
markets did well, we should be in equities," Jensen said. "It was about
if we have a dollar today, how do we want to put it to work based on
what our capital markets assumptions are telling us."
Now an investor in Fidelity's 2020 fund has 62
percent invested in equities, compared with 55 percent previously, while
an investor near or at retirement is 24 percent in equities, up from 20
percent.
Pimco raised the equity allocation in its target
date funds late last year by 5 percentage points for some funds and 7.5
percentage points for others. The equity allocation for those at
retirement is now 20 percent, up from 15 percent, while those investors
planning to retire in 2050 saw their equity allocation jump to 62.5
percent up from 55 percent.
"The decision was supported by our view that the
global macro environment had become more stable post the financial
crisis," said John Miller, head of U.S. retirement at Pimco, in an
e-mailed statement.